So what do the capabilities of Geographic Information Systems say?
90 percent of the biomass on Earth, which is 70 percent covered by water, is accounted for by water bodies.
However, the consequences of climate change experienced in the last decade have a serious impact on water bodies. Large droughts in the world's water bodies have already become a global problem.
This problem manifests itself in Azerbaijan, which is a part of the world. The Caspian Sea, which is experiencing constant level fluctuations, is currently in a lowering phase, and this process is predicted to continue until 2050. According to research conducted in the last 4,000 years, the sea level rises and falls every 250 years. It was observed that the highest level in the Caspian Sea was 5-6 meters higher than the current level in 1805. Since then, the sea level has continued to fall.
The lowest level in the Caspian Sea in the last century was in 1977. As a result of the retreat of the sea, new land areas appeared on the coasts. Those who thought that the sea was drying up had built houses and facilities in the areas that came out of the water. Later, with the increase of the water level in the crossing until 1995, those buildings were flooded and suffered great damage. In this regard, it is especially important to take into account the negative economic and ecological effects of Caspian sea level fluctuations.
History is currently repeating itself. The volume of dry land on the shores of the retreating Caspian Sea is increasing. From this point of view, it may seem attractive to build objects and houses on the seashore, but if it is wrong, the consequences can have serious consequences. So you have to think about it.
Fundamental construction cannot be carried out on exposed land areas
Therefore, we evaluated the processes taking place in the Caspian Sea based on the opinions of experts.
Amir Aliyev, head of the department of geomorphology of the shores and bottom of the Caspian Sea, Doctor of Geography Sciences of the Hasan Aliyev Institute of Geography of the Ministry of Science and Education, told our newspaper that the level of the Caspian Sea continues to decrease. About 38,000 hectares of Azerbaijan's territory has been flooded so far.
The scientist noted that between 1977 and 1995, when the level of the Caspian Sea rose by 2.5 meters, 50,000 hectares of land were flooded. Since 1996, there has been a decrease in the sea level, and until today the level has decreased to 2 meters.
The head of the department emphasized that the residences built in the southern region without taking into account the return of the sea in the previous period were flooded as the water level rose. According to recent estimates, about $2 billion worth of damage was caused by rising water levels. Now those areas have been revealed again with the retreat of the Caspian Sea.
Noting the possibility of using the lands exposed due to the receding of the sea for various purposes, A. Aliyev said that in general, the technical characteristics and composition of these lands differ by area.
According to him, the areas where the sea has dried up can be used for the purpose of expanding beach areas, increasing resort-type areas, as well as for the development of agriculture, various industries, especially fishing. "However, taking into account the level fluctuations of the Caspian Sea, it is not correct to carry out fundamental construction in these areas. The last time the highest sea level was recorded in 1805. From that day until now, the sea level has been falling, but there have also been episodic rises," the scientist added.
The head of the department emphasized that taking into account that the level of the Caspian Sea will increase after 2050, it is possible to carry out certain works in these areas until that period. But it is necessary to work in a planned way so that when the sea level rises, it does not cause great damage. Fluctuations in the level of the Caspian Sea have always been and will be.
e lands, any work should be done only according to the final opinion. Geographical Information Systems (GIS) are used in research and projects related to the retreat of the Caspian Sea in Azerbaijan, thanks to which it is determined which areas are suitable for land.
We learned the opinions of Arif Goyushov, a GIS expert, in order to determine the possibility of using the lands that came out from under water for what purposes.
The expert said that the surface of the Caspian Sea, which has an area of 371,000 square kilometers, is shrinking every year. Among the factors that affect the level change are the tectonic movements that occur on the sea floor. The water level of the Caspian Sea is variable and is currently about 28 meters below the ocean level. According to satellite images, it seems that the Caspian Sea has receded 800 meters in some places. Therefore, an island in the sea gradually merges with the land.
According to Arif Goyushov, it is impossible to make a long-term forecast about the dynamics of the sea level, because none of the long-term level forecasts prepared until now have come true. Among the main reasons for the withdrawal of water in the Caspian Sea are the reduction of water from the Volga River, increased evaporation due to climate change and other regional environmental factors. As a result, Azerbaijan gained new lands along the coastline. When the level of the Caspian Sea rises by 1 centimeter, about 200 hectares of land is flooded. Now, as a result of the opposite process, those areas are exposed under water. At present, about 38,000 hectares have been submerged due to a 2-meter drop in the sea level in the Azerbaijani part of the sea. In 1977, the level of the Caspian Sea was about 30-40 centimeters lower than today, and if this decline is at the level of that year, another 13,000 hectares of our territory may be submerged.
What areas can be developed in the Caspian lands that are drained?
A. Goyushov emphasized that the retreat of the water level in the Caspian Sea has a serious effect both from the economic and ecological point of view. According to him, a number of industrial directions can be developed against the background of this process: "In these areas, it is possible to expand the oil and gas industry, which is of great importance for the economy of Azerbaijan. Taking into account that oil and gas are mostly extracted from the sea, new areas opened by the withdrawal of water suitable infrastructure projects can be implemented on the lands. At the same time, suitable plants can be planted for the production and processing of sea products. In addition, new lands can also be suitable for the creation of tourism and recreation areas, especially and in the coastal regions".
A GIS expert said that taking into account the level fluctuations of the Caspian Sea, it is not recommended to build large objects in the areas that are under water. Because when the sea level rises, those buildings will be flooded and they will suffer a large amount of damage.
In this regard, the expert said that the application of GIS in research and projects related to the retreat of the Caspian Sea has a number of advantages. The application of GIS allows for sustainable development and integration into various areas of the economy by conducting strict environmental and economic assessments of the use of new lands. "Also, it is possible to track how the land changes over time with the help of satellite images and aerial photos, by taking accurate measurements of the new lands exposed as a result of the retreat of the Caspian Sea. GIS technologies help to optimize land use plans, taking into account the topography of the area, soil composition, climatic conditions and other important factors At the same time, it is possible to monitor the ecological situation and propose ecologically sustainable approaches for the development of these areas. This is important in terms of minimizing environmental risks. The application of GIS also facilitates the process of deploying and managing new infrastructures ", he added.
A. Goyushov said that, in general, the application of GIS technologies provides fundamental information and analytical opportunities for the effective and sustainable use of lands resulting from the retreat of the Caspian Sea. It is also an important tool for managing projects and preventing potential risks in the future.
Is agricultural activity possible in those areas?
In order to find out the benefits of the soil layer of the Caspian Sea, whether it is suitable for use in agriculture, we also learned the opinions of a soil scientist.
Ismayil Guliyev, head of the Department of Land Resources Geography of the Institute of Geography, Doctor of Philosophy in Agrarian Studies, noted that considering the fluctuations in the level of the Caspian Sea, it is not correct to carry out large-scale construction and invest large capital in the area where the sea is drawn. He said that those areas can be used for temporary purposes. "It is generally not correct to work on the young terraces of the sea. Azerbaijan has suffered from this many times. We must not forget that the level of the Caspian Sea rises and falls periodically," the head of the department emphasized.
is generally no land in those places. It is not convenient to use these areas for agricultural purposes. Soil takes many years to form. The process of soil formation must take place there. This is influenced by climate factor, vegetation and other factors. It takes at least a hundred years to form one centimeter of soil. Although such places are sometimes treated as soil, let's not forget that soil is the topmost productive layer of the earth. In those areas, it is possible to do certain things in terms of tourism, to expand recreation zones. The fact that the territory comes out from under the sea and the area expands does not mean that there is land there and something can be planted and cultivated.
The scientist emphasized that there is no soil layer in the areas where the sea has receded, so it is impossible to engage in any field of agriculture: "Nowadays, profitability is expected when planting agricultural crops. Sometimes it is not possible to get a good profit even from useful lands, there are areas that come out from under the sea. ".
Reminding that when the level of the Caspian sea level rises, I. Guliyev said that only light industrial facilities can be created there and certain devices can be installed. For example, a system for desalination of seawater can be set up, which can be transferred when the sea returns. The head of the department said that the areas where the Caspian receded 50-60 years ago are unsuitable for agriculture even today. Although they try to create something by bringing soil from the villages to those areas, it has no effect.
To get back from half the damage...
According to the opinion of experts, it can be concluded that it is very important to adapt to the Caspian Sea and do work on the sea coast. Instead of spending millions of dollars and building basic structures, it would be more appropriate to use those areas for profitable areas until the return of the sea.
Remembering the recent past, one should not forget the "magnificent" return of the Caspian Sea in the coming decades. Years later, in order not to talk about the magnitude of the loss, entrepreneurs should listen to the word of an expert right now, put aside the huge construction works in their minds, and leave what they have started unfinished.
As they say, it's better to come back from half the damage...
After all, there is no trust in the Caspian Sea...